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Metro Area Analysis

Deep dive into the top 20 metropolitan housing markets. Discover which cities have flipped to favor existing homes and where new construction still commands a premium.

Q4 2025 Dispatch$3 vs Q3 2025

15 of 20 Metros Flipped — Florida and Texas Lead the Reversal

Three more metros crossed into flip territory this quarter, bringing the total to 15 of 20 tracked markets where existing homes now cost more than new construction. Florida is the starkest case: Miami’s existing median hit $625K while new construction sits at $560K, a $65K inversion driven by record condo supply and a glut of investor-owned units hitting the market. Texas tells a similar story — Austin’s $40K flip reflects the fastest new-home price correction of any major Sun Belt market since 2022. The Northeast remains the lone holdout: Boston and New York still command $220K and $140K premiums for new construction, where land is scarce and permitting timelines stretch years.

17
Markets with "flipped" pricing

Existing homes cost more than new construction

$220K
Largest price gap

Boston-Cambridge-Newton

$635K
Average existing home price

Across all 20 metros

Top 10 Metro Areas by Price Gap
Positive values: new homes cost more | Negative values: existing homes cost more
Boston-Cambridge-NewtonNew York-Newark-Jersey CitySan Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa ClaraSan Francisco-Oakland-BerkeleyMiami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm BeachLos Angeles-Long Beach-GlendaleSan Diego-CarlsbadChicago-Naperville-EvanstonSeattle-Tacoma-BellevueDenver-Aurora-Lakewood-220-1100110220Price Gap ($K)
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How to read this table

Metro Area: The full Census MSA name (e.g., "Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH") — covers the city plus all surrounding suburbs.
Resale Price: Median price of existing (previously owned) homes sold in Q4 2025. Source: NAR.
New Build Price: Estimated median price of newly built homes. Marked "est." because the Census Bureau doesn't publish metro-level new home prices.
Price Gap: New Build minus Resale. Negative = existing homes cost more ("flipped" market, shown in orange).
New vs. Resale %: The gap as a percentage of the resale price. Boston +30.6% = new homes cost 30.6% more than existing homes there.
4-Qtr Trend: A mini chart of the last 4 quarters. Falling line = the flip is deepening. Rising line = gap is narrowing or reversing.
All Metro Areas (Q4 2025)
Click column headers to sort. Scroll horizontally on mobile. Hover any icon for definitions.
Metro AreaRegionResale PriceNew Build PricePrice GapNew vs. Resale %4-Qtr Trend
Boston-Cambridge-Newton
MA-NH · Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
✓ New > Resale
Northeast
$720K
median resale
$940K
est. new build
+$220K
new costs more
++30.6%
new % above resale
New York-Newark-Jersey City
NY-NJ-PA · New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
✓ New > Resale
Northeast
$580K
median resale
$760K
est. new build
+$180K
new costs more
++31.0%
new % above resale
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston
IL · Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL
✓ New > Resale
Midwest
$330K
median resale
$392K
est. new build
+$62K
new costs more
++18.8%
new % above resale
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
TX · Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
⚠ Flip: Resale > New
South
$335K
median resale
$310K
est. new build
-$25K
resale costs more
-7.5%
resale % above new
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford
FL · Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
⚠ Flip: Resale > New
South
$380K
median resale
$355K
est. new build
-$25K
resale costs more
-6.6%
resale % above new
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia
NC-SC · Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
⚠ Flip: Resale > New
South
$385K
median resale
$358K
est. new build
-$27K
resale costs more
-7.0%
resale % above new
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater
FL · Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
⚠ Flip: Resale > New
South
$395K
median resale
$368K
est. new build
-$27K
resale costs more
-6.8%
resale % above new
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell
GA · Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA
⚠ Flip: Resale > New
South
$380K
median resale
$352K
est. new build
-$28K
resale costs more
-7.4%
resale % above new
Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro
TN · Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro, TN
⚠ Flip: Resale > New
South
$445K
median resale
$415K
est. new build
-$30K
resale costs more
-6.7%
resale % above new
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler
AZ · Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
⚠ Flip: Resale > New
West
$430K
median resale
$398K
est. new build
-$32K
resale costs more
-7.4%
resale % above new
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise
NV · Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV
⚠ Flip: Resale > New
West
$420K
median resale
$388K
est. new build
-$32K
resale costs more
-7.6%
resale % above new
Dallas-Plano-Irving
TX · Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX
⚠ Flip: Resale > New
South
$390K
median resale
$355K
est. new build
-$35K
resale costs more
-9.0%
resale % above new
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue
WA · Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
⚠ Flip: Resale > New
West
$760K
median resale
$715K
est. new build
-$45K
resale costs more
-5.9%
resale % above new
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood
CO · Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO
⚠ Flip: Resale > New
West
$590K
median resale
$545K
est. new build
-$45K
resale costs more
-7.6%
resale % above new
Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown
TX · Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
⚠ Flip: Resale > New
South
$460K
median resale
$415K
est. new build
-$45K
resale costs more
-9.8%
resale % above new
San Diego-Carlsbad
CA · San Diego-Carlsbad, CA
⚠ Flip: Resale > New
West
$920K
median resale
$855K
est. new build
-$65K
resale costs more
-7.1%
resale % above new
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale
CA · Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA
⚠ Flip: Resale > New
West
$880K
median resale
$795K
est. new build
-$85K
resale costs more
-9.7%
resale % above new
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach
FL · Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
⚠ Flip: Resale > New
South
$650K
median resale
$560K
est. new build
-$90K
resale costs more
-13.8%
resale % above new
San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley
CA · San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
⚠ Flip: Resale > New
West
$1.3M
median resale
$1.2M
est. new build
-$130K
resale costs more
-9.8%
resale % above new
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara
CA · San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
⚠ Flip: Resale > New
West
$1.9M
median resale
$1.8M
est. new build
-$170K
resale costs more
-8.9%
resale % above new
Data Sources & Methodology

Data Source:

NAR Metropolitan Median Area Prices Q4 2025 (existing) + Census Bureau/NAHB regional ratios (new construction estimates)

• Existing home prices: NAR Metropolitan Median Area Prices, Q4 2025 (published February 2026)

• New home prices: Census Bureau/HUD national median adjusted by NAHB regional construction cost ratios

• Metro-level new home prices are estimates — Census does not publish metro-level new home medians

• Last updated: 2025-Q4 · Next update: Q1 2026 (May–June 2026)